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Aug 20, 2018 - 08:43 AM  

Calculators - Basic Prediction

Calculators - Basic Prediction

Body Mass Index Basic Prediction Advanced Prediction Heart Rate Zones VO2max PB Analysis

This is an advanced three model prediction system which is reasonable from 100 metres through to Ultra events. To use just fill in the three top values and click the Predict button.  A prediction will appear below the buttons.  Entering information is easy but a little different from other systems.

Distance: m-miles, y-yards, k-kms, me-metres, default miles; eg 4m440y (accepts 'marathon' or 'half')

Time: d-days, h-hours, m-mins, s-secs, default mins; eg 4h34m23.45s (accepts mins:secs)

PB Distance:   PB Time:

Distance to Predict:

More Details

Predicting performance based on a single result is prone to error.  Many things can happen which will make the result invalid.  These include how specific your training is for the new distance and the conditions, terrain, and weather for the new race..The RunCoach predictor is based on average results for a variety of nearby distances.  Biomechanics and genetics mean that people seem to be good over a fairly narrow range.  This predictor takes this into account by using three different interlocked models.  It has a sprints model, a middle distance model and a long distance model.  Each model is quite good within its area of application, but gets weaker as it gets further outside its limits.  RunCoach will let you know if the prediction may be a bit out by classifying the result into three categories (good - reasonable prediction, average - should try and get a closer dsitance PB, poor - your PB distance result has no bearing on your predicted target).  If you get a poor or average estimate you can improve the prediction by getting a PB distance which is closer to the target distance.

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