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Apr 24, 2017 - 12:42 AM  
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Calculators - Advanced Prediction

Calculators - Advanced Prediction

Body Mass Index Basic Prediction Advanced Prediction Heart Rate Zones VO2max PB Analysis

This system uses up to two races and adjusts for weight and age. To use just fill in as much as you can then click the Predict button.  A prediction will appear below the buttons.  Entering information is easy but a little different from other systems.

  • Distance: m-miles, y-yards, k-kms, me-metres, default miles; eg 4m440y (accepts 'marathon' or 'half')

  • Time: d-days, h-hours, m-mins, s-secs, default mins; eg 4h34m23.45s (accepts mins:secs)

  • Weight: s-stone, {l,p,lbs}-pounds,k-kgs,g-grams; eg 145lbs (default lbs)

  Distance Time Weight Date (M/Y)
PB 1
PB 2
Race to Predict

Date of Birth (M/Y): 

Prediction:

Prediction based on PB1: Prediction based on PB2:

 

More Details

This system is more accurate than the basic prediction as it takes into account weight, age and time since doing the PB's.  The two data points also provide a means of determining your short or long distance strengths.  Try and provide two PB's which are far apart in distance (eg 5k and half marathon).    The system doesn't predict improvements.  The result is a prediction based on your ability represented by the PB's provided.  If you have only started running recently then expect some improvement in ability that may translate into better than predicted times. Also if the PB's were some time previous there are two factors at work:- firstly your improvement in ability and secondly decreases due to age after about 30 years old or so.  Also remember the course, conditions (temperature, wind) and mental state have an impact.  Always try and run a good race and do the best you can on the day. 

The lower two predictions are what the basic prediction system would give (adjusted by age and weight) for each of the individual results.  This is just for your comparison and you should use the top prediction in most cases.  The top prediction is based on the Mercier, Leger, Desjardins Nomogram (Track Technique 1986) and is based on a concept of 'fatigue resistance'.  This looks at how rapidly your performance drops as distance increases.



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